Brewers vie to stay hot against Pirates
Baseball Betting Lines
07/20/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One day after starter Chris Capuano earned his first victory in over three years, the Milwaukee Brewers will try to extend their series winning streak over the Pittsburgh Pirates to six games this evening in the second contest of a four-game series at PNC Park.
Capuano took the hill in last night's opener and made his first start since June 3. He gave up one run -- a run-scoring triple by Ronny Cedeno -- on three hits over five innings to notch his first victory since May 7, 2007, snapping a 13-decision losing streak with a 3-1 triumph.
"I have a long view, a long perspective of baseball," said Capuano, who missed all of 2008 and 2009 recovering from Tommy John surgery. "I knew that I would eventually get more wins, but I'm just really happy I could get one with the Brewers, with this team."
Jeff Karstens didn't pitch poorly in defeat for the Pirates, holding the Brewers to just three hits. However, one was a solo home run by Prince Fielder, his National League-leading 23rd long ball of the season, and another a two-run homer by Rickie Weeks.
"I felt I had a really good rhythm, throwing strikes," Karstens said. "When I got ahead I was expanding the zone a little bit, making them chase."
John Axford secured the victory for the Brewers and Capuano with a scoreless ninth inning, earning his 12th save and Milwaukee's sixth victory in its last eight games overall.
Weeks has three homers in his last two games and is batting .400 (10-for-25) over a six-game hitting streak with seven RBI. He has a hit in both of his career at-bats versus Pirates rookie Brad Lincoln, who is 0-1 in two starts since winning his first MLB game on June 30.
The fourth overall pick of the 2006 draft, Lincoln has yielded eight runs over his last 11 innings. That includes a no-decision versus the Brewers on July 11 in which he gave up three runs on seven hits, including homers by Ryan Braun and George Kottaras, over six innings of a 6-5 setback in his first career start versus Milwaukee.
The 25-year-old righty is 1-3 with a 5.14 earned run average on the season and 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA over his first two career home starts.
Lincoln's Pirates could be without center fielder and leadoff hitter Andrew McCutchen after he sat out Monday's game due to a right shoulder injury suffered on Sunday versus Houston. Without McCutchen, Pittsburgh failed to secure a third straight win and lost for the eighth time in its last 10 games.
The Pirates have lost nine of 12 to the Brewers this year, including five of six at home, and will try to snap Dave Bush's streak of six straight starts having allowed two runs or fewer.
Bush is pitching to a 2.39 ERA in that span and beat the Pirates on July 10, holding them to two runs over 6 1/3 innings. The right-hander also recorded a win at PNC Park on April 20 with seven shutout innings and is 5-4 with a 4.28 ERA lifetime against the Pirates.
The 30-year-old, who was born in Pittsburgh, lost to the Braves last time out on Thursday despite giving up just two solo homers and seven hits total in six innings of a 2-1 setback. Bush fell to 4-7 on the season with a 4.07 ERA.
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Florida Marlins survived a meeting with Colorado Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez in last night's opener of a four-game series at Sun Life Stadium. The Marlins figure to have an easier chance of matching their longes
<< Red Sox hand ball to Wakefield in Oakland
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After getting an important West Coast road trip off to a
good start, the Boston Red Sox shoot for a second straight win over the
Oakland Athletics when the teams continue a three-game series tonight at the
Coliseum.
Bosto
<< Hughes goes for 12th win in Yankees-Angels opener
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Phil Hughes takes aim at win No. 12 when the New York
Yankees open a brief two-game series with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
this evening at Yankee Stadium.
Hughes, the loser in last Tuesday's All-Star Game, won six o
<< Garza, Rays vie to continue success against Orioles
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Garza takes aim at win No. 11 when the Tampa Bay Rays
and Baltimore Orioles continue a three-game set this evening at Camden Yards.
Getting that win tonight shouldn't be a problem for Garza, who is 8-1 with a
2.48 ear
<< Royals try to make it two in a row over Jays
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Kansas City Royals try to string back-to-back wins
together this evening, when they play the middle test of their three-game
series against the Toronto Blue Jays at Kauffman Stadium.
The Royals halted a six-game losing
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox will be vying to further pad their lead atop the American League's Central Division when the resurgent club resumes a three-game series with the Seattle Mariners this evening at Safeco Field. Chica
Indians take aim at sixth straight win in middle tilt with Minnesota >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Indians are beginning to atone for a
miserable first half of the season with a terrific start to their second.
The rejuvenated Indians take aim at a sixth consecutive victory following the
All-Star break whe
Black takes new deal into Padres/Braves series >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Under Bud Black, the Padres have become one of the biggest
successful surprises in 2010. The San Diego manager is now reaping the rewards
of that achievement.
The Padres take the field for the first time since Black wa
Hurricanes sign D Carson >>
Raleigh, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Carolina Hurricanes agreed to terms with
defenseman Brett Carson on a one-year, two-way contract on Tuesday.
The 24-year-old completed his first full NHL season in 2009-10 with two goals
and 12 points i
Tigers place Inge on DL >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers on Tuesday placed third
baseman Brandon Inge on the 15-day disabled list with a non-displaced fracture
of the fifth metacarpal on his left hand.
Inge was hit on the hand by a pitch
Kurt Warner to start, Matt Leinart to watch
Despite the debate that's swirling , Kurt Warner will remain the starting quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals, coach Dennis Green said today. The Arizona Cardinals are the +7 point underdog at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com for this Sunday's game.
Green's comment came in a statement released by the team following an ESPN report that Green decided that rookie Matt Leinart would replace Warner as starter for Sunday's game at Atlanta.
"Generally talking about the starting lineup is not something we do," Green told the AP. "However, given the speculation that was out there we want to make it clear. We're disappointed after last week, but we still expect to be a playoff football team and we fully expect Kurt Warner to be the quarterback that leads us. That has not changed."
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Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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