Major League Baseball

Florida inches closer to SEC crown, as Gators host Gamecocks

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/21/2007 - Gainesville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The third-ranked Florida Gators have been knocked off their perch atop the college basketball world, at least temporarily, but they continue to rule the SEC and are heavy favorites in tonight's matchup with the South Carolina Gamecocks.

South Carolina carried a five-game skid into Saturday's home game against Tennessee, but the result was a thrilling 81-64 victory. The Gamecocks are a game over .500 overall, but their 3-9 league mark leaves much to be desired.

Florida was a perfect 11-0 in SEC play heading into Saturday's road clash with a strong Vanderbilt squad, and the Commodores scored an 83-70 upset victory in that tilt. Still, the Gators are steamrolling toward a regular season league title and are a perfect 16-0 at home.

Also, keep in mind that Florida crushed South Carolina by an 84-50 final back on January 13th, and the Gators own a 31-19 advantage in the all-time series between the teams.

South Carolina guard Tre' Kelley is one of the better players in the SEC, but he doesn't receive a great deal of attention because of the struggles of his team. Despite facing constant double teams, Kelley is averaging 18.3 ppg to rank among the league leaders. He is also dishing out five assists per contest and gives maximum effort every time he takes the floor. Unfortunately, only one other player in the lineup is scoring in double figures, as Brandon Wallace checks in with 10.3 ppg and 9.6 rpg. USC is netting a modest 64.9 ppg on 42.4 percent overall shooting, and the lack of offensive production has resulted in the poor record. Kelley scored 25 points against Tennessee and actually got plenty of support from his teammates for a change in Saturday's win. The Gamecocks shot 53.7 percent from the floor and limited the Vols to 38.2 percent.

After winning the national championship last season, all five starters for Florida decided to return to school rather than give in to the lure of NBA riches. All five standouts are averaging double figures in scoring this season, as the Gators may be the nation's most unselfish team. Taurean Green paces the club with 13.6 ppg on the strength of his 42.2 percent shooting from three-point range, and he has dished out 96 assists. Corey Brewer checks in with 13.0 ppg, and Joakim Noah adds 12.7 ppg, 8.0 rpg and 47 blocks. Al Horford is contributing 12.6 ppg and 8.8 rpg, while Lee Humphrey rounds out the group with 10.2 ppg on 47.4 percent accuracy from behind the arc. The Gators are racking up 81.0 ppg while limiting opponents to 61.0 ppg. Noah scored 15 points to pace Florida in the loss to Vandy, but the freakishly athletic forward only took five shots from the floor and needs to be a bit more assertive at the offensive end. Poor defense led to the defeat, as the Gators permitted the Commodores to shoot 57.1 percent from the field.


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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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