Line of Scrimmage: Norv Turner - Bad Things Happen in Threes
Football Betting Lines
02/20/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - They're rejoicing in Denver, Kansas City, and Oakland right about now.
Norv Turner is an NFL head coach for the third time, having taken over for Marty Schottenheimer in San Diego, and the rest of the AFC West is licking its collective chops.
"Aw," you insist. "Give Norv a chance!"
No thanks. Turner got nine seasons worth of chances, minus those final three games of 2000 in which Redskins owner Daniel Snyder sent Norv on an early, ineptitude-forced vacation.
The record - 58-82-1 in nine years with Washington and Oakland - should speak for itself. The number of playoff appearances and postseason wins - one each - should too.
Norv Turner is simply not a quality head football coach, and I'm not sure that a Chargers Super Bowl win, which could realistically come as early as next season, would necessarily prove otherwise. Turner might just raise the Lombardi Trophy next February in Glendale, but at best, he's a caretaker in the class of Barry Switzer or George Seifert.
At worst, he's a disaster. With the Redskins and Raiders, he was the quintessential "player's coach" albeit one that had little clue how to actually motivate those players. He was even-keel to a fault, rarely inspired greatness in important division or rivalry games, and more or less left both franchises in worse shape than he found them.
"Yeah," you're telling me, "but that great offensive mind!"
That great offensive mind, which indisputably functions at a John Nash-like level when Turner wears the coordinator's headset, loses some of its cellular activity when Turner assumes the head coaching reins.
In his seven years with the Redskins, Turner's teams were top 10 in the league in yards exactly once. The Raiders finished in the bottom half of the NFL in both points and yards in each of Norv's two years in Oakland.
And look at all those great signal-callers that the purported QB guru helped guide in his nine seasons as head coach. Heath Shuler became the next Sonny Jurgensen, right? Turner seemed to have a great rapport with consummate winners Jeff George and Kerry Collins, too. The best quarterback Norv coached in the close-to-a-decade he spent as a head coach was probably Trent Green, who the Rockne-like Turner let walk away via free agency after the 1998 season.
Are the Chargers headed on a path to destruction simply because they hired Turner? Of course not. San Diego still has the best offensive player (LaDainian Tomlinson) and defensive player (Shawne Merriman) in the league, has a bright young quarterback in Philip Rivers and other first-rate talents like tight end Antonio Gates and nose tackle Jamal Williams. With that nucleus and the bitterness of last season's shocking playoff exit in their rear-view mirror, you can expect the Chargers to win the AFC West and make a serious run at the franchise's first Super Bowl title.
But the very same would have happened had the Spanos family and co-conspirator A.J. Smith hired Mike Singletary, Mike Zimmer, Rex Ryan, Ron Rivera, or someone else who hadn't already proven himself to be an utter failure as a head coach.
The same would have also happened had the Chargers hired Barry Switzer. Which in a way, they did.
...AND IN SAN FRANCISCO
Fans of the 49ers should be fearful too. Turner's departure leaves a gap at offensive coordinator, and early speculation has centered on the possible promotion of San Francisco wide receivers coach Jerry Sullivan to the position.
The 62-year-old Sullivan has a ton of experience as an NFL assistant, but his only year as an offensive coordinator in the league ended in abject failure. Sullivan steered the attack of the 2003 Arizona Cardinals, who finished dead last in the league in scoring (14.1 points per game) while going 4-12 and hastening head coach Dave McGinnis' exit from town.
Finding a credible coordinator candidate at this late stage of the offseason is problematic, but I've got one - Mark Whipple. Whipple was quarterbacks coach in Pittsburgh for the past three seasons, and was the odds-on favorite to become offensive coordinator if either Ken Whisenhunt or Russ Grimm had been tabbed as new head coach of the Steelers. Instead, Whipple is out of a job, an ignoble fate for a man that helped mold Ben Roethlisberger into one of the top young quarterbacks in the league.
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SPORTS BETTING
NFL Football Betting OnlineIn terms of sports wagering, the NFL is "the most popular game in town." The explanation behind that is easy.
It is called the "pointspread."
Many years ago, NFL games, as well as the more popular college games, used straight odds as a vehicle for betting. For example, if the Bears were playing the Giants, and it shaped up as a competitive contest, the Bears might be, say, a 7/5 favorite. If they were playing an also-ran, it might be 10/1. Well, there is a point where a line becomes prohibitive, as far as betting the favorite. And who would waste money betting an underdog that has virtually no chance? Such a setup did not contribute to promoting betting action.
But in modern sports betting, a "pointspread" is used.
A NFL pointspreads are exactly that, a pre-established point difference between the two sides that will, for all intents and purposes, create a handicap that evens things out, and in doing so, produces comparable wagering activity on both sides of that proposition. So in lieu of a odds figure in which to bet the team to win outright, the Bears might be a three-point favorite over the New York Giants, and a 17-point favorite over the also-ran. Now that the team that is the underdog can "get" points, there can be equal action on both sides.
In sportsbooks, this is usually done with efficiency by charging the losing bettors 10% extra - in effect, bettors are laying 11/10 on those games. So they are actually betting $110 to win $100. If they lose, they pay the "vig." If they win, they simply collect.
The establishment of the pointspread as the corner stone around which team sports like football can be wagered upon was truly what brought gridiron betting into the stratosphere for online football betting .
Don't believe it? Just take a look at what happens around the Super Bowl.
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Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence
Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.
Work left to do:
Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.
Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.
DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...
West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.
Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.
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