Three share World Cup lead
Golf Betting Lines
12/07/2006 - Saint James, Barbados (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Argentina, South Africa and Sweden all posted rounds of seven-under-par 64 on Thursday to share the first-round lead of the World Golf Championships - Barbados World Cup.
Stephen Dodd and Bradley Dredge paired together for victory last year for Wales and are close to the top of the leaderboard again. On Thursday, they teamed for a six-under-par 65 and share fourth with Bernhard Langer and Marcel Siem of Germany.
The American duo of Stewart Cink and J.J. Henry re-kindled some of their Ryder Cup magic on Thursday. They combined for a five-under-par 66 and are part of a group tied for sixth place.
"Stewart and I have very similar games," said Henry, who went undefeated with Cink at this year's Ryder Cup. "He's the wily veteran of the two. He's been out here a couple of years longer."
The strong English tandem of Luke Donald and David Howell matched the Americans at minus-five as did the Korean pair of S.K. Ho and Charlie Wi.
Thursday's action was in a four-ball, or best-ball, format and that will be the case on Saturday as well. On Friday and Sunday, it will be foursomes or alternate-shot.
The players were greeted by sporadic rain showers on Thursday, sometimes bringing strong storms. One thing that was not sporadic was the wind, often times gusting close to 30 miles per hour.
Argentina, represented by Angel Cabrera and Andres Romero, started poorly with a bogey at the first. The team rebounded with back-to-back birdies from the second and added another front-nine birdie at the par-five sixth.
The team combined for five pars around the turn, but the Argentineans caught fire in a big way. Cabrera and Romero recorded five consecutive birdies from the fifth to soar into a tie for the lead.
South Africa, which has won two of the last five World Cups, is anchored by Rory Sabbatini, who successfully paired with Trevor Immelman on the way to victory in 2003, and Richard Sterne.
The two got off to a relatively slow start as they birdied three and six on the front side. Sabbatini and Sterne collected four birdies in a six-hole span after the turn, then joined the lead toward the end of the round.
At the par-three closing hole at the Country Club Course at Sandy Lane Resort, Sabbatini, who won this year's Nissan Open, rolled in a six-foot birdie putt. That got South Africa into a tie for the lead.
"I had to smack him around a little bit at the turn to tell him to wake up," joked Sabbatini. "Once I did that, he started playing properly. We kept the ball in play for the most part. I think 16 of 18 holes we had a good opportunity at birdie."
Sweden comes in with one of the strongest duos - 12th-ranked Henrik Stenson and 37th-ranked Carl Pettersson. The team played consistently on the front side with four birdies, but the pair seemed to lag on the second nine.
They managed only one birdie, a three at the par-four 12th before coming on down the stretch. Petterssen nearly holed an 18-foot eagle putt at the 15th before settling for a birdie.
On the final hole, Petterssen hit his tee ball 15 feet right of the flag and Stenson played his shot almost a foot in front of Petterssen's. After Petterssen missed his birdie putt, the two conferred and Stenson sank his to put Sweden in a share of the lead.
Ireland, manned by Ryder Cup teammates Padraig Harrington and Paul McGinley, posted a four-under 67 and is tied for ninth place with Colombia (Camilo Villegas and Manuel Merizalde), Japan (Tetsuji Hiratsuka and Hideto Tanihara) and Scotland (Colin Montgomerie and Marc Warren).
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With one quarter of the season to play last year, the Colts were 12-0 and had just clinched a playoff berth with a 35-3 rout of the Tennessee Titans. The Titans would have none of it this year, rebounding from an early 14-
<< Brodeur continues his climb
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - On Wednesday night Martin Brodeur posted his 461st NHL
victory, tying him with Ed Belfour of the Florida Panthers for second on the
all-time list. The win leaves him 90 short of the league's career record
established by Hal
<< Caps making a move?
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Capitals can't be as streaky as they've
been if they hope to land a spot in the Eastern Conference playoff field. But
for now, they will gladly ride the wave of momentum they're on.
Since losing six straigh
<< December off to poor start for Habs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After winning eight of their 13 games during the month of
November, the Montreal Canadiens are not finding the same success in the early
part of December.
The Canadiens try to end a two-game skid Thursday when they visit t
<< Royals cut ties with Hernandez
Lake Buena Vista, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Kansas City Royals released
pitcher Runelvys Hernandez on Thursday to clear a spot on their 40-man roster.
Hernandez was cut loose to make room for right-handed pitcher Joakim Soria, who
the club
Zurich, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FIFA announced on Wednesday that a pair of American confederations will compete to decide who's granted a spot in the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. The fifth-place South American country will
Report: Klinsmann withdraws from MNT coaching race >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - According to a report from Allen Hopkins
of ESPN.com, Juergen Klinsmann has pulled out of the running for the next U.S.
Men's National Team head coaching position.
The website stated that Klinsmann se
Avs activate Turgeon >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Avalanche activated forward Pierre
Turgeon from the injured reserve list on Thursday.
The 37-year-old Turgeon sat out the first 27 games of the season after having
offseason shoulder surgery.
N
Atlanta Braves >>
Acquired pitcher Rafael Soriano from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for pitcher Horacio Ramirez.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (CFL) >>
Signed wide receiver Derick Armstrong to a contract extension.
How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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